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3. An Outline of Existing Monitoring Systems

verfasst von : Michael Joffe

Erschienen in: Evaluating Economic Success

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

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Abstract

Economic performance has long been routinely measured by GDP. Although it is a good measure of activity, it is generally agreed to be a poor measure of economic success. The reasons are that it omits domestic labour and other unpaid work, it includes a great deal of economic activity that does not contribute directly to economic welfare (“defensive expenditures”) and may be harmful to individuals, society or the environment, and it is insensitive to inequality. There are also several other, more technical, problems. More fundamentally, purchases that merely improve one person’s economic standing compared to others make no contribution to aggregate wellbeing yet are counted in GDP. And macro-evidence shows that in rich societies, increasing prosperity is subject to diminishing returns—as GDP per person rises ever higher, the amount of additional benefit greatly decreases, possibly even to zero.
There have been various responses to this situation. One is to start from GDP, and attempt to remedy its defects by adding some items (e.g. domestic labour) and subtracting others (e.g. the cost of deterioration of nature). Various methods have been devised to adjust for inequality. And there have been many attempts to broaden the range of included items to form composite indices—the basic motivation being that economic success is only one criterion of societal benefit (this is not the same thing as providing a measure of economic success). Some useful ideas have emerged from this work, but there are no clear criteria for deciding which items should be included. Furthermore, the underlying notion is that monitoring something desirable will in itself lead to improvement—whereas in reality, effective policy needs to be based on the determinants of desirable outcomes that can be altered. And it is difficult to envisage such composite indices displacing GDP in the development of major policies. However, a different approach to “beyond GDP”, the OECD/EU initiative for an “economy of wellbeing”, has much in common with the emphasis on basic needs proposed in this book.
A great deal of progress has been made in assessing household disposable income, in valuing public services that are free at the point of delivery and in evaluating “free” goods and new products. The valuation of the various types of assets has also advanced considerably, including the UN System of Environmental Economic Accounting and the Inclusive Wealth Index. Particular attention is needed in relation to critical resources that are non-substitutable, including drinkable water, fertile soil, and pollinators including bees.
Subjective wellbeing has been the focus of much development activity. It is now widely monitored, and substantial research is being undertaken on its determinants. However, many methodological and conceptual problems remain, and its causal dependence on economic factors may be too weak to justify its sole use in evaluating the success of an economy. Health status needs to be considered alongside happiness as a primary criterion. Its social determinants are extremely well established, and account for a greater proportion of health outcomes than either healthcare or lifestyle choices. To a large extent, these determinants correspond to the satisfaction of basic needs as emphasised in this book, and health is responsive to interventions across the corresponding range of policy areas. The success of an economy in promoting a good quality of life for everyone can therefore be evaluated by monitoring of the satisfaction of basic needs, as determinants of health and happiness.

3.1 GDP and Its Limitations

For over half a century, the performance of an economy has been judged by its size, as assessed by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or a closely related metric. It is a good measure of activity, and is therefore suitable for economic management. As is well recognised, GDP has desirable properties from a measurement perspective, because it is a theoretically grounded accounting system that avoids double counting, being the sum of the value added, so that inputs at a particular stage of production are subtracted, rather than counted a second time. Also, it is weighted by prices, which arguably reflect the importance of each product (Corrado et al. 2017), and it has been claimed that the existence of positive prices for marketed output measured by GDP implies a beneficial impact on outcomes—although this does not apply to harmful products, and it has been argued that it is fallible: “the seemingly strong performance of some countries prior to the [2008 financial] crisis (as indicated by GDP) was not sustainable and was based on “bubble” prices that exaggerated profits and output” (Stiglitz et al. 2009, p. xxiii). In addition, GDP has some relationship with outcomes that are universally regarded as desirable. Substantial and sustained reduction in absolute poverty, in particular, has been associated with GDP growth, and has rarely occurred without it.
It has, however, long been realised that GDP is unsuitable as a measure of economic success, for multiple reasons that are well understood.
First, the omission of unpaid labour is a major gap: primarily household production including childcare, also voluntary work and the informal economy. In rich modern societies, unpaid household labour has been estimated as equivalent to about 20% of GDP (Van de Ven 2019). Historically, and in many less developed societies today, unpaid household labour includes a great deal more, notably food production for own use. In many countries the informal economy, including provision by the wider family or community, is also of major importance. As well as overlooking this quantitatively important labour, the exclusive focus on paid work leads to an odd distortion, as in the well-known (and stereotyped) tale of a man who marries his housekeeper, thereby reducing GDP: she continues to do his housework but is no longer paid for it.
Second, much economic activity is included that is inappropriate because it does not contribute to economic welfare and may even reduce it. It includes environmentally damaging activities such as logging, expenditure required to repair environmental damage such as cleaning up polluted rivers, and “defensive” expenditure such as policing and commuting. These are in addition to Robert Kennedy’s “air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage … special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them”, as in the quote at the beginning of Chapter 1.
Third, GDP measures the aggregate annual income of the economy, or the average if divided by population size, but not the distribution of wealth or income. Inequality is therefore invisible unless other measures are used in addition. This is important because the increase in inequality within many countries has led to disquiet across the political spectrum, and GDP growth is no longer universally seen as a panacea for deprivation. In particular, even the richest countries have large populations that have been “left behind” in recent decades, with dire consequences for health and wellbeing—recently described as “deaths of despair” (Case and Deaton 2020). This problem is likely to increase as creative destruction proceeds, unless effective measures are taken to mitigate it.
These limitations were already recognised when GDP was first being developed. Attempts have been made to address these fundamental issues, e.g. by adding unpaid labour, subtracting expenditures that do not contribute to economic welfare and adjusting for inequality. They are briefly discussed below. These adjusted GDP measures involve judgements about what should be counted as unpaid labour and how to value it, what should be subtracted as not contributing to welfare, and the choice of measure for inequality adjustment. This detracts from the straightforward concept behind construction of GDP and introduces a subjective element.
In addition, several other issues have been recognised that are also technical in nature and can be quantitatively important. They include:
  • a rise in per capita GDP giving the impression of economic improvement even when it is due to further enrichment of the already rich, and/or to growth in speculative finance;
  • overstatement of apparent prosperity in resource-based countries and investment hubs (Deaton and Schreyer 2020, Fig. 3);
  • lack of clarity concerning how to value public services that are not marketed;
  • neglect of intangible capital;
  • insensitivity to quality improvement;
  • insensitivity to the rise of “free goods”, especially since the digital revolution.
A further issue, one of principle rather than a technical matter, is that not all purchases contribute to a population’s level of health and/or happiness. This is not only true of products that are harmful and/or are consumed as part of an addiction. Also, no net gain arises when items are bought to improve one’s (perceived) position relative to others, because any aggregate measure has the property of mutual cancelling out: one person’s relative gain is another’s relative loss. And it is arguable that fleeting pleasure does not add to wellbeing in any meaningful sense—for raised mood to count as a benefit from economic activity implies a substantial durability of effect.
Correspondingly, the health and happiness attributable to consumption are subject to diminishing returns at the macro level. In terms of human health, the evidence shows that there is decreasing benefit of ever-higher GDP per person, especially within the rich world. This appears to be true also of subjective wellbeing (Kahneman and Deaton 2010; Stone and Krueger 2018). At the micro level it means that for relatively prosperous people, many discretionary purchases have little or no impact on health or happiness—yet they still contribute to GDP. Some economists have posed the question, “how much is enough?” (Arrow et al. 2004, Coyle 2011; Skidelsky and Skidelsky 2013; Raworth 2017).
The same issue can be seen in relation to specific types of purchase. For example, in comparing the US with relatively rich countries in Europe, per capita GDP is higher in the US, electric clothes driers are more commonplace, and more is spent on electronics, cars, furniture and clothes (The Economist 2022). But Americans work much longer hours on average. America is clearly more prosperous, but whether this implies a higher quality of life depends on values. Again, more healthcare interventions are carried out in the US, yet life expectancy at birth is over five years lower than in France, and three years less than the OECD average (Commonwealth Fund 2022) (although cancer survival rates are relatively high [The Economist 2022]).
This issue is especially salient now, given the multiple threats to the environment, especially climate change and decreasing biodiversity. Increasingly, there is a desire for a better balance between GDP growth and ecological sustainability. While growth is justifiable when it benefits the most vulnerable and has little environmental impact, high consumption levels can cause environmental destruction with relatively little gain in health or happiness.

3.2 “Beyond GDP

Countless suggestions have been made for going “beyond GDP”. The European Parliament held a conference on the topic in May 2023 (Denult and Das Never Bicho 2023). Some proposals start with GDP and seek to correct its perceived defects. Others augment GDP with additional criteria such as education, health, subjective wellbeing and even cultural identity, thereby forming composite indicators. I discuss some of the most important contributions; this is not a complete review—there are hundreds of suggested measures, a few of which have been quite widely calculated.
Although some positive ideas have emerged from this agenda, the proposed indicators lack a clear rationale for inclusion of the various items, so that it is unclear which should be used. In addition, many of them merely resemble a list of topics that are deemed important in a particular context.

3.2.1 Adjusted Versions of GDP

There have been attempts, starting in the 1970s, to overcome the drawbacks of GDP by means of additions and subtractions.
One of the early attempts to create a better assessment of welfare was the Measure of Economic Welfare (MEW, 1972), developed by William Nordhaus and James Tobin. It subtracted environmental damage and defensive expenditures and added the value of unpaid work, of the informal economy and of leisure time, to the basic GDP measure.
Subsequently, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW 1989) modified GDP by adding services produced by unpaid household activities, capital formation and the public sector, while subtracting defensive expenditures, the costs of environmental degradation and depreciation of natural capital. This was revised as the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI 1995), which also starts with GDP, adding unpaid household labour, the increase in capital stock and the balance of international trade, and subtracting defensive costs and the cost of deterioration of nature. It contains 26 items, covering economic, environmental and social aspects. The ISEW and GPI have been estimated for many countries, provinces and cities (Kubiszewski 2018), but do not appear to have been much used in practice.
More recently, a “spectrum of measures” has been envisaged. Future GDP brings in missing capitals such as natural or environmental capital, human capital and some intangible productive assets; Welfare Minus approximates net national disposable income by also incorporating transfers; and Welfare also takes distribution into account (Heys et al. 2019).
Another reaction to the perceived inadequacy of GDP as a measure of wellbeing has been to shift the primary focus to capabilities, emphasising the importance of diverse abilities and activities in pursuing happiness. It involves a balance between materialistic and non-materialistic factors (Sen 2001; Nussbaum 2011). This has been developed into a philosophy of human welfare and development. In terms of practical indicators, it has informed the construction of the Human Development Index (HDI 1990), a composite indicator with equally weighted contributions from per capita GNI,1 life expectancy at birth and years of schooling, aggregated by calculating their geometric mean. A revised method of calculation was introduced in 2010. As life expectancy and education coverage have increased in low- and middle-income countries, they contribute less of the variance of the HDI, which has therefore come to depend more on GDP alone.
Adjustment for inequality has also been carried out. The most widely used method multiplies per capita GDP by (1 – G), where G is the Gini coefficient, a standard measure of inequality; (1 – G) is therefore a measure of equality (Sen 1976). An inequality-adjusted version of the HDI has been developed (UNDP 2019), and features in the UNDP’s annual Human Development Report. However, it does not appear to be widely used for practical policy purposes. Other proposed measures are the Atkinson Index, which generates an adjustment based on the degree of inequality aversion (Atkinson 1970); and “the Vast Majority Income” (VMI), which measures the per capita GDP for the 80% of the population that has the lowest income, thereby excluding the richest 20% (Shaikh and Ragab 2008).
More recently, Jones and Klenow (2016) have extended per capita GDP as a measure of consumption, by adjusting it for mortality, inequality and leisure (based on the annual number of hours worked), using an expected utility framework. The adjusted measure is apparently designed for use in economic analysis, rather than as a practical policy indicator. It gives a more positive assessment of western Europe (e.g. France) than GDP alone, relative to the US, because of the higher life expectancy, lower inequality and fewer hours worked. With most developing countries, the opposite is seen. Trends in growth rates are typically revised upwards, mainly because of improving mortality rates over time.

3.2.2 Composite Indicators

It is now widely agreed that multiple measures are required for monitoring the economy, society and the environment. There is, however, no consensus on exactly which should be used, and how they relate to each other, despite important work by the United Nations, the OECD and many others. Progress has been and is being made on complementary metrics, particularly those related to the environment.
A widespread tendency in the”beyond GDP” movement has been to combine many different types of measures in the same index. More than 900 of such composite indicators now exist (Hoekstra 2019), some designed to be compatible between different countries, and some country-specific. The aim is often explicitly to move beyond an economic view of progress—different from, and broader than, the aim of this book which is to evaluate the success of the economy in human terms.
A few have contributed useful ideas to the discussion. However, it is generally unclear how beneficial change could take place as a result of the information included in the index. In many cases, composite indicators appear to be based on the notion that if something important is monitored, this in itself will shift its value in the favoured direction—whereas in reality, an indicator can only have a beneficial effect if it leads to appropriate action, implying that indicators need to be designed with this in mind. For whatever reason, composite indicators have had little impact on practical policy. Here I outline only a few of the major examples.
A notable instance of the effort to try and find a better indicator of societal—not only economic—success is the Better Life Index (2011), developed by the OECD. It consists of eleven areas, including environment, income, housing and life satisfaction (OECD n.d.; Van de Ven 2019). It therefore covers respectively assets, output, outcomes and impact. It also includes civic engagement, which is outside the scope of a specifically economic index. The Better Life Index can be used to compare countries, allowing the user to specify differential weighting of the various components, e.g. prioritising housing, or the environment (OECD n.d.). It has also been adapted for use in non-OECD countries that have lower levels of per capita income (Boarini et al. 2014).
Some countries have produced their own composite indicators, sometimes explicitly tailored to local conditions and concerns. A notable one is the New Zealand Living Standards Framework, released in 2018. It includes health, subjective wellbeing, time use, income/consumption, jobs/earnings, housing, cultural identity and the various types of capital asset, and is presented as a dashboard (New Zealand Treasury n.d.). It is, however, unclear whether it has altered the policy direction, and it is likely that 65 indicators are too many to provide clear guidance for policy development (McClure 2021). Similar initiatives are taking place elsewhere, e.g. in Wales and Scotland, and an alliance of “wellbeing economies” has been formed (WEGo n.d.).
While the presence of a variety of separate dimensions in one combined index may be appealing, there is no clear criterion of what should be included. Composite indicators may have some pragmatic merit by covering what is deemed to be important in various contexts, but any particular combination is arbitrary, with little agreement on what should take priority—as is clear from the number of different indices that have been developed; they are “ad hoc and too varied to build a consensus around a new global way of measuring progress” (Allin et al. 2022).
It is perhaps too soon to judge whether any of these indices will turn out to be useful in actual policy development and implementation. The OECD’s Better Life Index, or nationally-specific measures such as the New Zealand Living Standards Framework, may prove to be useful for certain types of policy initiatives in the future. But it is difficult to imagine any such indicator being taken as a serious criterion in the development of specifically economic policy, or of mainstream government policy with major economic implications. It is therefore unlikely to displace GDP as the overwhelmingly dominant economic measure.
In contrast, the proposed IEO and its component indicators provide a simpler and more streamlined methodology that is specific to the economy, and complementary to GDP. Its embeddedness in the rigorous structure shown in Fig. 1 (Chapter 1), i.e. assets, output, outcomes and impact, is a key strength that enables separate types of indicator to be used that are appropriate for monitoring the distinct aspects of the economy, society and the environment. This allows them to be combined in a transparent way when necessary for particular purposes, not only providing conceptual clarity but also allowing the calculation of the efficiency ratio and the sustainability ratio (see Chapter 4), which is impossible with composite indices.

3.2.3 “Beyond GDP” Approaches that Focus on Economic Outcomes

There are some important developments in the “beyond GDP” work that do not involve composite indicators, which are highly compatible with the IEO approach. In particular, an initiative is being developed by the OECD and the European Union to move towards an “Economy of Wellbeing”. Its content closely resembles the perspective argued for in this book, and is almost identical to that of table 1 in Chapter 2. The proposal is to boost improvements in education and skills, ensure access to high-quality healthcare for the whole population, promote health including mental health, pursue social protection and redistribution as well as active labour market policies, and promote gender equality including access to good-quality care and preschool programmes for children (OECD 2019). It would be intended to improve people’s lives and promote upward social mobility, with special attention being given to inequalities and to those at the bottom of the distribution, as well as fostering environmental and social sustainability. This has been endorsed by the European Union, with the addition of access to social services and long-term care, safe and decent working conditions plus fair pay, and access to affordable housing; social inclusion and non-discrimination are also emphasised (Council of the European Union 2019).
The OECD case for an Economy of Wellbeing is partly framed not as an end in itself, but rather as “a “virtuous circle” in which individual wellbeing and long-term economic growth are mutually reinforcing” (i.e. involving what I have called “consequential gain”)—justifying the pursuit of wellbeing as a means to the end of economic growth. However, a parallel OECD initiative, New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) emphasises that “we need … to stop seeing growth as an end in itself, but rather as a means to achieving societal goals including environmental sustainability, reduced inequality, greater wellbeing and improved resilience” (OECD 2020). This latter position meshes very well with the IEO perspective.
There has also been an initiative to monitor the extent to which basic needs are met, in a wide range of countries, using whatever data are already available derived from a variety of sources (Social Progress Initiative 2022). The Social Progress Imperative has published information on what they term Components of Social Progress. These are “Basic Human Needs”—adequate nourishment and basic medical care, clean water, sanitation, adequate shelter and personal safety; “Foundations of Wellbeing”—access to a basic education, information and communication, healthcare, and a healthy environment conducive to a long life; plus “Opportunity” which is concerned with personal rights, freedom of choice and inclusiveness as well as access to advanced education. The first two categories largely coincide with table 2.​1 in Chapter 2. Annual reports have been published since 2013, and a longitudinal analysis is now available for 170 countries (Harmacek and Krylova 2023a, 2023b; The Economist 2023a).

3.2.4 Recent Developments

Considerable progress has been made since Mismeasuring our lives (Stiglitz et al. 2009). The OECD produced a report of progress on their collaborative work in 2018 (Stiglitz et al. 2018). More recently, the United Nations has coordinated activity on the beyond GDP agenda more broadly (UN High-Level Committee on Programmes 2022), and has organised a series of online “Sprints” showcasing the progress being made by national statistical offices, the OECD, divisions of the United Nations and others (UNNES n.d.). This is in the context of the UN Secretary-General’s report Our Common Agenda (UN 2021).
On the technical side, one valuable contribution has been in assessing household disposable income as a measure of “economic wellbeing”—material living conditions, which determine people’s consumption possibilities and their command over resources (Van de Ven 2019). This can be done using the same System of National Accounts that forms the basis for calculating GDP, an approach that can be extended to include household saving and indebtedness, and cash transfers from government to households. And there have been initiatives on measuring household production (e.g. childcare and cleaning) using time use data, which is outside the System of National Accounts (Van de Ven 2019).
Progress has also been made in relation to several practical measurement problems. One has been the difficulty of valuing public services that are free at the point of delivery, and therefore have no observable market or exchange value. Traditionally, they were allotted a value equal to their inputs (the “outputs equals inputs” method). Clearly, this measure would by definition not be able to reflect any change in productivity (Foxton et al. 2019). In the UK, the Atkinson Report examined this issue in great depth. It proposed that the appropriate measure was value added, which was equal to the improvement in outcomes directly attributable to the activities of the public services concerned (Atkinson 2005). Development work has been carried out in the UK to meet this recommendation, and will continue to be needed to update the estimates. Strong progress has been made, by working with subject-matter experts and practitioners, with the result that estimates are now available at low cost, that are well accepted by stakeholders, for approximately half of UK public service output (Foxton et al. 2019).
Another issue is the relationship of GDP to innovation in production. This has become topical in recent years, with the rise of the digital economy. There are two aspects to this: price reductions, and new goods or quality improvement in existing products.
The impact of price reductions, and the failure of conventional measures to reflect them, has become inescapable since more and more functions have become available that are free at the point of use on smartphones, tablets, etc.—or more accurately, that are available in covert exchange for “eyeballs” (attention that facilitates advertising), and for data. The same conclusion applies to the introduction of new goods and services, such as social media, and those of higher quality. A great deal of work, some of which is controversial, has been carried out to address these issues, using willingness-to-pay (e.g. employing incentive-compatible choice experiments) and other approaches (Hulten and Nakamura 2018; Nakamura et al. 2018; Aizcorbe et al. 2019; Brynjolfsson et al. 2019; Heys et al. 2019; Poquiz 2023).
It is less well recognised that the process of real price reduction has been an important feature of successful economies since the industrial revolution. This has been well documented for illumination (Nordhaus 1996), and for multiple consumer items in twentieth-century America (Cox and Alm 1997). The process started in early-nineteenth-century England, and has continued since then in successful economies, with widespread real price falls large enough to have made a major contribution to the increase in prosperity during this period. Real price falls of this magnitude imply that the monetary value, and therefore the economic presence, of each item has fallen relative to its physical quantity [Joffe submitted for publication]. This is therefore a deep and long-standing phenomenon, not just a recent occurrence. Nor is it confined to what Corrado et al. (2017) call the quaternary sector (knowledge production including schooling and R&D). One implication is that the rise in per capita GDP has systematically underestimated the improvement in the standard of living. The recent focus on “free” services only looks at the tip of the iceberg.
Other measurement problems with GDP include intangibles (Corrado et al. 2017), and unproductive financial investment (Coyle et al. 2019). Arguably, adjustments should be made for them, which could be included in an augmented version of GDP. They are not discussed further in the present book.
To summarise, a strong case can be made for retaining GDP as a measure of the amount of activity in the economy, as this is appropriate for economic management. This could be augmented to include unpaid labour, because of the substitutability between paid and unpaid labour, and possibly quality improvement and “free” goods (Hulten and Nakamura 2020), and further extension of the asset boundary to include intangibles (Corrado et al. 2017). There is currently an active debate on these topics, that will not be further discussed here.

3.3 Assets

All production depends on the availability of several types of assets. These can be monitored as stocks that can be added to or depleted. Tracking the stocks of various types of asset is an important component of assessing the state of the economy and society, and especially, the prospects for the future (Stiglitz et al. 2009).
Monitoring asset stocks is especially important in relation to the natural world, because human activity is leading to the depletion and degradation of the natural environment. A great deal of progress has been, and is being, made on this agenda. I do not discuss this topic in detail here, because it is a separate—and complementary—initiative to the focus on economic outcomes proposed in this book.
The United Nations, working with others, has developed the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA), which integrates economic and environmental data to allow the monitoring of stocks and changes in stocks of environmental assets, and to illuminate the interrelationships between the economy and the environment (UN n.d.). Its concepts, definitions and classifications are compatible with the System of National Accounts (SNA). Progress on the more complex aspects of ecosystem accounting is being made, through SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (Van de Ven 2019, pp. 26–29).
The Inclusive Wealth Index, also developed by the United Nations, combines natural, human and produced capital in a single indicator. This enables the increase or decrease in wealth as a whole, as well as in its components, to be tracked, e.g. for a particular country. The Inclusive Wealth Report 2012 (UNU and UNEP 2012) was the first of a biennial series of reports, tracking changes in inclusive wealth since 1990. Other important initiatives have included Measuring wealth, delivering prosperity (Coyle et al. 2019), The economics of biodiversity (Dasgupta 2021) and The changing wealth of nations (World Bank 2021).
One innovative approach has been to construct the Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) as the sum of ecosystem goods and services, such as agricultural products, water, carbon sequestration and recreational sites (Ouyang et al. 2020). It has been trialled in China, and is now set to be replicated in other countries (Masood 2022).
Changes in each type of natural asset can be measured in terms of biophysical rather than monetary quantities. This is the appropriate method for comparisons over time and between different countries, as it is not sensitive to price fluctuations—monetary valuation of assets is unstable. In commodities such as minerals, prices tend to fluctuate widely over periods of years and decades. Bubbles may also occur. In addition, when more money becomes available (e.g. through borrowing) to buy real estate or financial assets, their price rises. But nothing has changed in terms of productive potential, although there may well be an alteration in terms of wealth and/or debt, depending on the source of the money.
It is in the comparison of different types of assets that the money value has an advantage, which is useful for decision-makers. However, some are critical resources that are non-substitutable (Coyle et al. 2019). Drinkable water cannot be replaced by some other asset, and it is already in scarce supply in some regions of the world, and being depleted in others (Naddaf 2023). There is no substitute for fertile soil. Some species of organism, such as bees and other pollinators, are necessary for many crops. And a rise in human and produced capital does not necessarily compensate for environmental degradation. If the assets, or the services that flow from them, are given a pecuniary value, it is also essential to track the critical resources using a physical measure. The attributed monetary measure should not displace the assessment of critical stocks in their own right.
This issue goes beyond consequences for humans: “Putting a considerable price tag on the lives of endangered species simply does not do justice to the importance of biodiversity and the morality of providing opportunities for all species to survive” (Van de Ven 2019). Figure 1.​1 (Chapter 1) represents these non-substitutable assets as “The natural world”, prior to “natural capital” which is its value for human use. This recognises that the non-human world is valuable in its own right, and is not just a means to human ends.
Even in economic terms, asset valuation in monetary terms is not conceptually clear. Such measures of the “wealth economy” must be “forward looking and based on expectations” (Coyle et al. 2019). Market prices are not necessarily suitable for this, although they may provide important information on some asset types. With the traditional concept of capital goods, their true value depends not on their cost but on their ability to generate future flows of income. Henry Ford’s new production line more than a century ago led to the transformational growth of his firm, and to the mass production of cars more generally. A more recent example, less physical in nature, is the value of the Google search algorithm when it was first developed. The difference between the cost and the potential value of an investment is equivalent to Kuznets’s distinction between costs and returns (Kuznets 1962), and has been described as “a free lunch” (see Lipsey and Carlaw 2004 for a discussion).

3.4 Impact: Subjective Wellbeingand Health

3.4.1 Subjective Wellbeing

The view that wellbeing, in some sense, should be a foundational value is an ancient idea. It goes back to the Vedic philosophers of ancient India, to Confucius in China and to Socrates in Europe (Austin 2020, Chapters 2 & 3). A similar idea applied specifically to the economy goes back at least to Scitovsky (1976; revised edition 1992), who contrasted the economists’ ideal of abundant consumption with psychological evidence on the actual roots of joy.
The idea of monitoring “Gross National Happiness” rather than GDP was proposed by the King of Bhutan in 1972, and adopted as the goal of government in 2008. It comprises sustainable and equitable socioeconomic development, environmental conservation, preservation and promotion of culture, and good governance (Wikipedia n.d.). Bhutanese Gross National Happiness surveys have been conducted periodically since 2008. This initiative has been quite influential, and has been emulated by several cities and regions worldwide. However, international comparisons indicate that Bhutan’s level of happiness is in fact quite average by global standards. The cultural aspect of the measure includes a strong religious (Buddhist) orientation, and the initiative has been criticised because its introduction coexisted with the expulsion of 100,000 non-Buddhist ethnic Nepalese people (Frelick 2008).
The rigorous study of subjective wellbeing, including methods of measuring it, started growing in the late twentieth century, with pioneering work by Easterlin and others. The impetus to monitor it as a guide to policy increased in the early twenty-first century, for example with the publication of Layard’s Happiness (2005). Several national statistical offices now monitor wellbeing, e.g. the UK Office for National Statistics, which started in 2011 (ONS 2019), and the United Nations has published the annual UN World Happiness Report since 2012 (UNSDSN n.d.).
This increased focus on subjective wellbeing is highly encouraging, but it is unclear what practical effect it has had. For example, it has been monitored for over ten years in the UK, yet it is hard to discern any policy initiative that has resulted from the availability of the data. This is not surprising, because knowledge of the level of subjective wellbeing and/or of its trend provides no information on what policy initiative(s) would enhance it. One needs to know what the determinants are, and what policy levers are available. In addition, any such initiative would inevitably be in competition with other policy priorities.
There is also a burgeoning academic literature on wellbeing (e.g. Lee et al. 2021; Layard and De Neve 2023). For example, O’Donnell and Oswald (2015) discuss the relative weights that should be given to happiness, life satisfaction, perceived worthwhileness of life and anxiety in an overall index, and how a measure of its change could be developed. And the International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies is a forum for research in this area, which includes work on economic and material wellbeing among its topics (ISQOLS n.d.). In addition, wellbeing has formed the basis for the analysis of policy and the economy (Bache and Scott 2018; Dalziel et al. 2018; Bache 2020).
Few would disagree that wellbeing, in its various meanings, should influence policy. For many people, it would need to be balanced against other criteria, including protection of the natural world. Others regard it as the sole criterion, as in the extreme view that “the goal of government” should be wellbeing, as measured by reported life satisfaction (emphasis added) (Frijters et al. 2020). All policies would be subjected to a cost-effectiveness ranking in terms of the ratio of extra happiness to cost, based on an official list of “believed effects of various policies and circumstances”. The proponents justify this view partly on the basis that measured wellbeing is predictive of future earnings as well as marital stability and long-term survival, and that measures such as job satisfaction predict future job quitting. The initiative has the potential to promote programmes that increase life satisfaction, especially in the areas of mental health and social relations, such as emotional skills teaching and relationship coaching for high-risk groups. It also collates examples of best practice from which others can learn, and is stimulating important research into the societal determinants of life satisfaction (Frijters et al. 2020).
To that extent, its aim is in close alignment with the orientation proposed in this book. However, its scope is too diffuse for a measure of the success of the economy, and thus for a replacement of that function of GDP: one study found that the main causal factor influencing the degree of adult life satisfaction was diagnosed depression and/or anxiety (46%), with economic factors such as income, employment and education together accounting for less than 20% (Clark et al. 2018). And it is better suited to being applied “throughout the public services and by non-governmental organizations” (Frijters et al. 2020) than to the outcomes of the entire economy.
The monitoring of wellbeing faces measurement problems, because culture and language influence the response to survey questions (Kapteyn 2020). Responses are also sensitive to question order, and to the distorting effects of previous questions—a relationship that differs in different populations (Stone and Krueger 2018). And the reported level of wellbeing depends on mode, e.g. personal interviews, with or without show cards, as against telephone interviews (OECD 2013). In addition, the assessment of life satisfaction has the disadvantage that it is coarse grained because individuals can only answer with whole numbers, and its volatility means that large numbers of people are required in order to obtain stable estimates (Frijters et al. 2020).
Furthermore, a consistent observation is that its three aspects—life satisfaction, affective state (mood) and a sense of purpose—have different drivers, and different consequences for the person concerned (National Research Council 2016). The various measures assess essentially distinct concepts (Stone and Mackie 2015, 2018; Durand 2020). There are also several other methodological issues that require extensive research, such as causal attribution; rapid progress is being made on this research agenda (Stone and Krueger 2018).
A more fundamental feature of subjective wellbeing is that it responds strongly to one’s position relative to that of others. There is clearly an aggregation (fallacy of composition) problem here: it is impossible to raise everyone’s relative position (Kapteyn 2020). At the population level, the strategies that people use to boost their own relative position, and the expenditure involved in doing so, become irrelevant and should therefore be valued at zero.
Another fundamental feature of subjective wellbeing is that it is subject to adaptation. Events that make people better or worse off tend to have only a short-lived effect; the wellbeing score returns to its previous level, or close to it, after the passage of time. This reduces the sensitivity of subjective wellbeing to changes in life circumstances. It may be stronger for negative effects such as disability, entry into poverty or unemployment (Stone and Krueger 2018).
However, it has been noted that subjective indices are more resilient if they are tied to objective components of wellbeing (Corlet Walker and Jackson 2019). That accords with the approach taken in this book, to focus on the conditions that facilitate health and wellbeing.

3.4.2 Health

Frijters et al. (2020) briefly consider combining measurement of subjective wellbeing with length of life, but drop the idea for technical reasons in measuring happiness [sic]. In general, health has had only a minor role in the “beyond GDP” discussions and proposals, although it has appeared in some of the composite indicators, notably as life expectancy in the HDI; and Deaton and Schreyer (2020) have advocated greater attention to health in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The neglect of health is odd. There is a strong empirical basis for the suggestion that health status is largely determined by living conditions, and specifically by the extent to which basic needs are met. It is well established—and widely known—that life expectancy depends on social conditions, with differences of up to ten years between rich and poor areas (e.g. Iacobucci 2019), and a gradient across areas of intermediate prosperity. This consistent observation cannot be wholly attributed to healthcare variations, or to “lifestyle” differences such as smoking rates. A similar social mortality gradient of Covid-19-related deaths was widely observed during the pandemic.
The World Health Organization states that the social determinants of health account for 30–55% of health outcomes, more than either healthcare or lifestyle choices. They “are the conditions in which people are born, grow, work, live, and age, and the wider set of forces and systems shaping the conditions of daily life”, and that “[i]n countries at all levels of income, health and illness follow a social gradient: the lower the socioeconomic position, the worse the health” (WHO n.d.; see also Marmot 2010; Braveman 2023). The observation of a gradient across the whole population is consistent and important: it is not a dichotomy of rich versus poor, or due to the existence of a marginalised subgroup.
The WHO lists factors that influence health outcomes and health inequities (“unfair and avoidable differences in health status”) (Table 3.1). The WHO list contains ten items, eight of which correspond closely to table 2.​1 in Chapter 2. The only exceptions are #8 and #9, which are not economic outcomes. Similarly, the US list comprises five items very similar to those in table 2.​1, plus racism, discrimination and violence (US Office of Disease Prevention & Health Promotion n.d.). Health status, including such “hard” endpoints as infant mortality risk and life expectancy, is structured by socioeconomic position, and related to the fulfilment of basic human needs. It is also responsive to policies across the different sectors of the economy, which has long been recognised by public health experts under the heading “Health in All Policies” (HiAP) (WHO 2014).
Table 3.1
Social determinants of health
World Health Organization
US office of disease prevention & health promotion
1. Income and social protection
Safe housing, transportation and neighborhoods
2. Education
Racism, discrimination and violence
3. Unemployment and job insecurity
Education, job opportunities and income
4. Working life conditions
Access to nutritious foods and physical activity opportunities
5. Food insecurity
Polluted air and water
6. Housing, basic amenities and the environment
Language and literacy skills
7. Early childhood development
 
8. Social inclusion and non-discrimination
 
9. Structural conflict
 
10. Access to affordable health services of decent quality
 
Sources (WHO n.d.; US Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion n.d.)
The neglect is also odd for another reason. When an earthquake, a hurricane or a train crash occur, it is routine for the death toll to be reported. And when a mining company pollutes the area around a mine, a primary concern is with chemicals that are toxic to humans and/or wildlife—i.e. a threat to their health. Yet the loss or gain in health resulting from economic policies is rarely reported in the same way, in spite of strong evidence of a link. For example, the austerity policies of the 2010s were followed by a large number of excess deaths. The precise number is unclear. In the UK, the estimates include 131,000 (IPPR 2019), more than 230,000 (Darlington-Pollock et al. 2021) or 250,000 (excluding deaths explained by Covid-19) (The Economist 2023b). The latter number is in addition to the 300,000 that would be expected on the basis of the life expectancy decline in similar European countries. This UK figure is associated with deprivation—and especially with particularly severe austerity policies that affected spending on social care, housing, etc., in the most deprived areas (The Economist 2023b). It has currently not been established that these observations can be taken at face value as representing cause and effect, but even the possibility prompts the suggestion that human health consequences should be a major criterion in judging economic policies.
Furthermore, most people would agree that health is at least as important as subjective wellbeing—having a broken heart is bad, but a heart attack is worse. The experience of the Covid-19 pandemic has probably raised awareness of the central importance of health. It should be included as a major criterion for the evaluation of the success of an economy (and more broadly, of a society).
In addition, omission of health as a primary outcome leads to an odd distortion, as with GDP and the man who married his housekeeper, as mentioned above. If a depressed person were to die, average happiness would increase (apart from the impact on family and friends).
Conversely, it would be equally misguided to omit subjective wellbeing and focus exclusively on health (even including mental health). In the evaluation of the economy, concern only with health would result in an indicator that is too insensitive. Many products and activities do not have a strong health impact, but they do enhance the pleasure of living in a way that is too subtle to be captured as mental health.

3.4.3 Monitor Determinants Not Impacts

The strongest position is that health-plus-happiness should be the ultimate goal of policy. Wellbeing should be construed in a broad, inclusive sense that encompasses biological measurements as well as self-reports—what may be called inclusive wellbeing. However, the best way of achieving this goal is not to monitor these endpoints; rather, monitoring their economic determinants is a superior way of assessing the success of the economy in providing for individuals, households and society. There are several reasons for this.
One is that neither health nor wellbeing responds rapidly to changes in the economy at the aggregate level, unless there is a major shock that affects the whole population, as with the Covid-19 pandemic or a war. Relatedly, both health and happiness tend to be strongly influenced by factors throughout the life course, especially in childhood (Marmot 2010; Layard et al. 2014): homelessness, financial insecurity and unemployment cast a long shadow, and inadequate education leading to illiteracy is a lifelong burden. This is not a reason to ignore such causal factors, but rather, to monitor the causal factor itself rather than to wait for its impact—to focus on the intermediate outcome, as discussed in Chapter 2. A paradigm case is that access to good-quality early years education and childcare should itself be counted as a major contributor to economic wellbeing. Its benefits would be invisible if reliance were placed on monitoring health and wellbeing themselves, as many of these impacts take years or decades to become fully manifest, and causal attribution would be extremely challenging.
Second, each has specific causes that are inappropriate for assessing the success of the economy. In the case of health, some are unrelated to the economy, such as genetic disorders. Others, for example cigarette smoking, are themselves partly due to job insecurity and/or financial hardship. In assessing the outcome of economic activity, that is a reason to monitor the economic determinants of smoking (Marteau et al. 2021).
In the case of wellbeing, a dominant influence is the quality of interpersonal relationships, and there are also cultural factors that play an important part. These are best regarded as distinct from the economy. This does not mean that they are completely separate: employment is an important source of social relationships, and economic activity can affect relationships in other ways, e.g. if basic needs are not met, or are insecure, leading to anxiety. The economy may also have a causal role in another sense, if it requires a great deal of mobility and therefore disruption of social relationships, as with the large-scale migrant labour in the Gulf States from other parts of Asia.
The implication of all these problems is that health and subjective wellbeing do not provide rapidly responsive measures of the quality of life attributable to the economy, and wellbeing has additional issues, both methodological and substantive. Also, in practical terms, even if they can successfully assess “how well a country is doing”, they are not useful as a guide indicating how it might do better. This is because such indicators do not enable a link to be made with any specific sector or policy within the economy.2 They therefore do not provide clear guidance for action. On the other hand, monitoring the economic determinants of health and subjective wellbeing is eminently practical and reliable. These economic outcome measures are responsive to changing conditions. And as argued above, monitoring such intermediate outcomes is more informative because it provides information on what measures could be taken to improve the situation.
Finally, health and wellbeing indicators produce an average score for the whole population. When they are used for monitoring, a separate measure is therefore required for the assessment of inequality, or at least, separate scores for subgroups of the population.

3.5 Recent Contributions on the Overall Monitoring System

Some of the modifications discussed in the “beyond GDP” section fall within the established System of National Accounts (SNA) that is used in calculating GDP. Others can be included in national statistics as satellite accounts, for example covering education and training, health, and unpaid household activities. This can include innovative types of data such as time use.
Vanoli (2017) discusses the extent to which the SNA can be extended beyond its traditional concern with GDP, especially in relation to sustainability and ecosystem services, and more broadly to gains and losses in assets. He favours expanding the national accounting system, but a relatively narrow role for the SNA, supplementing the economic sphere with three others: nature, with ecosystem assets being separate from the national accounts; people, including health, education, culture and unpaid household activities; and society which includes defence/military activities, as well as many intangible assets that are difficult to value. He considers that wellbeing does not belong in an accounting framework, and it is therefore omitted. It is unclear how distribution (inequality) would fit into his schema.
On similar lines, Hoekstra (2019) proposes an extension of the accounting system beyond economic data to include environmental and societal accounts. A fourth set of accounts would cover distribution, although he does not specify clearly how this would work. These would have equal status rather than being seen as the SNA plus satellite accounts, and would all be neutral rather than evaluative or prescriptive. A fifth category would be quality accounts, to indicate whether the situation is improving or deteriorating. More recently, he has called for harmonisation of terminology and methodology, combining economic, environmental and societal accounts in an interdisciplinary analysis (Hoekstra 2021); the scope of this book roughly corresponds to what he terms the societal accounts.
Van de Ven (2019) reviews the work of the OECD in recent years, and provides an excellent overview of the practical issues involved in extending the current scope of official statistics, both within and outside the scope of the System of National Accounts. His vision for the future is an overarching framework: “specific alternatives which could provide clearer guidance for the future direction of societal developments, have a rigorous and conceptually sound underlying measurement framework, and—last but certainly not least—are easy to communicate” (Van de Ven 2019, p. 30). It should enable better understanding of the trade-offs and win-wins between the various domains in, for example, the Better Life Index.
Finally, Schreyer (2021) has a comparable diagram to Fig. 1.​1 in Chapter 1, grouped as (i) assets—resources for future wellbeing; (ii) production; and (iii) current wellbeing, with a cyclical structure (i.e. including consequential gain). His current wellbeing category includes quality of life (e.g. subjective wellbeing, social connections and environmental quality) and material conditions (income and wealth, jobs and earnings, and housing).
In this context, it may appear to unduly increase complexity to be adding health (which is usually ignored in these discussions) to subjective wellbeing as an ultimate criterion, and adding economic outcomes as mediators between output and impact. In fact, my framework is less complicated than existing proposals despite including more, because the separate “spheres” of assets, outputs, outcomes and impact are clearly recognised, as in Fig. 1.​1. A key advantage of having this clear demarcation is that it makes trade-offs explicit. It facilitates the comparison of, for example, the “cost” of attaining a certain level of the IEO, and therefore of the consequent health and wellbeing, in terms of both inputs (“productivity”) and environmental footprint (“sustainability”), as described in Chapter 4. This is obscured if they are combined in the same indicator. I suggest also that the assessment and interpretation of inequality are greatly simplified by its being incorporated as an integral feature of the IEO.
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Fußnoten
1
GNI is GDP plus the receipts minus the payments of property income (interest, dividends, earnings on foreign direct investment, etc.) from the rest of the world.
 
2
There are a few exceptions to this statement. For example, effective mental health services can increase happiness—or more accurately, reduce the burden of mental illness such as depression.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
An Outline of Existing Monitoring Systems
verfasst von
Michael Joffe
Copyright-Jahr
2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57671-3_3

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