Dynamics of the Ukraine War

This chapter provides a general and broad-based background to the Russo-Ukrainian war and sets the scene for a critical thematic discussion focusing on the problematisation of the political positions taken by the warring parties. A comparison between the aims and objectives is drawn, and the incompatibility is explained. The discussion centres around two main topics. One is the persistent threat that both parties pose to each other, thus preventing meaningful peace, and the second point is the unresolved disagreement over the territories in Ukraine, which Russia is claiming as its own. Subsequently, this chapter identifies two main schools of thought concerning how to end the war, noting the impossibility of fulfilling the claims of both sides in a way that ensures peace negotiations. Thus, it is argued that the Russo-Ukraine war could evolve into an annihilating year-long conflict, yet producing little, if any, meaningful or mutually acceptable peace outcomes. The discussion that follows addresses the failures of diplomacy and identifies the emerging and ongoing discourses that contextualise the political, economic, and other issues. In conclusion, the chapter provides an analysis of the competing views on what it means to win the war and the fallacy of ‘squaring the circle’.

This chapter discusses the uncertainties that impact war activities and the political rhetoric in the West and Russia concerning the changing representation of war in the political arenas and on the battlefield. It is argued that the territorial losses and gains over the 2022–2023 winter month and the expectation of a Ukrainian spring counter-offensive changed the initial discourses on both sides of the political spectrum. It is shown that the political discourse on both sides hardened, and the hostilities between the warring parties increased to such an extent that diplomacy—for the time being—is no longer an option. Two main arguments concerning the ‘death of diplomacy’ are discussed. It is argued that both are based on perceived or real existential threats. Ukraine perceives an existential threat from Russia and the latter an existential threat from the Western Alliance, such as having NATO on its doorstep in Ukraine. This, so the argument goes, does not allow much room for diplomatic solutions amidst an ongoing war. In conclusion, the chapter articulates an argument that due to the changing political and military situation and the death of diplomacy, there is no winner in sight.

This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the complexities and problematics of the Russo-Ukraine war, with a view on the precursors to the Russo-Ukraine war. These include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and its relevance to the Ukrainian security guarantees, the NATO 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration implying Ukraine membership, the Minsk I Agreement ratified in 2014 as a critical factor in international discussions aimed at resolving the long-simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine, and Minsk Agreement II signed in 2015 and its impact on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Based on an analysis of the above Memorandum, agreements, and declaration, the political failure of Minsk I and II is posited. In this context, the Russian government’s rationale for achieving denazification and demilitarisation, which led to a proxy war and Ukraine’s counter-offensive, is critically examined. It is shown that the former is a shorthand for regime change, and the latter is a shorthand for blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership. In conclusion, this chapter discusses peace plans and their failures.

This chapter critically assesses the global political and popular discontent surrounding the Russo-Ukraine war. It focuses on the reasons behind the discontent emerging in Western countries and discusses and analyses discontent from within Russia and Ukraine, respectively. The chapter examines and analyses aspects of military discontent from a Russian perspective and public discontent from the perspectives of select European countries, culminating in a critical analysis of the rising popular and political discontent in Europe. This is followed by a further analysis of the discontent from Global South countries and the disunified approach taken by the Western Alliance towards the Global South. These forms of discontent can be seen as catalysts for forthcoming changes in the European political and economic landscape, leading to a ‘new’ Europe. Concerning the above discussions, this chapter includes analyses of the rise and expansion of the BRICS alliance as a counterbalance to the USA-led geo-political and geo-economic ambitions.

This chapter revolves around the sanctions war between the Western Alliance and Russia, primarily focusing on the first 20 months of the Russo-Ukraine conflict. The Western Alliance initially imposed economic, diplomatic, and other sanctions on the Russian government, institutions, companies, and individuals, whilst Russia retaliated by blocking Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports. The chapter examines the effectiveness of these sanctions and argues that they did not achieve the intended outcomes, leading to negative economic consequences for some Western Alliance countries. Surprisingly, the evidence suggests that these sanctions brought Russia closer to major world economies, notably China and India, contributing to modest economic growth. Conversely, certain EU countries face economic challenges, including Germany, the largest EU economy. The chapter focuses on various aspects of the sanction wars, including energy, financial, and food export sanctions. It concludes with a discussion on the emergence of a potential economic crisis that could have widespread ramifications for developed and developing nations.

This chapter provides an analysis and a critique of the propaganda war between Russia and Ukraine and the Western Alliance, respectively. The introductory discussion unpacks the two central concepts, namely the legitimate role of the Fourth Estate and the propaganda contrivances. Subsequently, the discussion turns to propaganda war proper. It is shown that there is an asymmetrical news coverage of the war in the Western mainstream media. Notwithstanding the asymmetrical news coverage, the importance of the propaganda war is advanced by addressing and analysing the Russian and the Western mainstream media approach to the propaganda war critiques with a locus between disinformation and biases. Three further issues are subjected to analysis and critique. These are the Ukrainian counter-offensive as a propaganda storyline, alternative views to the mainstream media and the silencing and sidelining of critical voices in the West generally and Western media specifically. The chapter concludes with a critical appraisal of the failures of the Fourth Estate, the Western propaganda, the Western mainstream media, and the censorship exercised by both sides of the war.

Drawing on the three components of the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war, namely the military, economic, and propaganda wars, the argument is made that the world is experiencing a Zeitenwende—a geo-political and geo-economic tectonic shift on many fronts. These include geo-political and geo-economic encounters, a potential end of the USA-based unipolarity, a rise in global multipolarity, and changes in global multilateralism. The chapter explains and rationalises the proposition that the leading competing players will be the USA and China, as well as a block of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries. Turning to the concept of Zeitenwende, the discussion explores factors contributing to the emerging geo-economic strategic factors brought about by the Russo-Ukraine war and, therefore, the emergence of a new world order. Three aspects are considered. First, the phenomenon of a Zeitenwende from a geo-political vantage point and in connection with the Russo-Ukraine War; second, the impact of the Russo-Ukraine War on NATO; and third, the emergence of a new world order.

This chapter analyses the financial and military aid provided to Ukraine by the Western Alliance. Three main issues are canvassed. First, aid was provided to Ukraine from the Western Alliance. Secondly, the discussion focuses on issues concerning the scenario building for aid for Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding. Thirdly, the discussion turns to the aid fatigue observable within the ranks of the Western Alliance, especially the USA. A brief analysis is offered on the problems concerning the USA’s continuing military funding, focussing on the effects of the congressional stalemate and funding shortfall, depletion of previous funding, the military hardware replacement programme, and the military dynamics on the battlefield.

Furthermore, the question of funding the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine is investigated, including the proposal for the West to establish a kind of Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Both funding aspects are pursued under the condition that Ukraine avoids becoming a dysfunctional rump state. It is argued that one of the factors that militates against the allocation of sufficient reconstruction aid is the international economic confidence in Ukraine, which, prior to the war, was one of the poorest and most corrupt European countries.

This chapter discusses the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the challenges in finding a resolution. The discussion explores the idea of a frozen conflict as a potential long-term solution, given the lack of progress in negotiations and the Western countries’ focus on weakening Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, is mentioned as having firmly ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire or frozen conflict, indicating Russia’s confidence in its position. The chapter also delves into Ukraine’s difficulties in accepting a frozen conflict and its aspirations to join NATO and the EU. It discusses the emerging decline in Western support for Ukraine, primarily due to financial and political considerations, and suggests possible outcomes for the future of the conflict. The chapter concludes by acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the geo-political consequences of the Russo-Ukraine conflict on Western nations.